According to Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, Bond yields are heading up. The rebound in equity markets since the beginning of October, looks largely played out, with further gains dependant on a turnaround in earnings forecasts. Yields on DM sovereign bonds are catching up with the wider market rally...
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Macro-Prudential Monitor that global credit growth is not likely to have a strong pick-up in 2015. Hence, macro-prudential risk indicators (MPI) could continue to trend lower with the highest risks still largely confined to emerging markets (EMs).
First, let's start with an apology: All too often this year our notes have focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve, or global monetary policy in general. In our defense, as the global economy becomes more dependent on debt, in all its forms, the importance of servicing that debt cannot be overstated. Moreover, as fiscal policies have become exhausted in an era of European austerity and U.S. Congressional dysfunction, the role of monetary policy has been magnified. Until recently, we have been fairly optimistic concerning the Fed's ability to navigate the course to higher rates. We are less so today.
The US Federal Reserve maintained a status quo on its interest rates at its September
meeting, thereby extending a period of zero interest rates that has lasted for virtually
seven years already. This decision, which ought to have reassured investors,
was on the contrary greeted with further significant equity market falls.
Brazil is in recession territory. The country's fiscal consolidation plan had a major set-back in July as the finance minister Joaquim Levy announced a significant downward revision of the government's primary fiscal surplus targets. In august, S&P placed Brazil's foreign currency rating, on negative outlook.