Oil prices have risen substantially in the past months. Given the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, a potential oil shock is still one of the biggest risks for economic growth and financial markets.

Egypt is the most populated country in the Arab world and its economy is second only to that of Saudi Arabia. The striking media images can easily give rise to anxiety and hide long-term perspectives. That is not a good idea.

It did not pay to be a contrarian in 2010. Will that be different in 2011?