Despite the resulting intraday market moves, Abe's resignation should not come as a shock. He is a long-tenured PM with a history of ill health, and rumours of his departure had been circulating. However, the timing – in the middle of a global pandemic and its attendant economic turmoil, and with a US election in the near future – is unfortunate.
The reaction to the virus outbreak was not one of denial at Nordic governments. The responses have been decisive, swift and wide to contain the first fall outs. Let's take a firm look in the rear–mirror on what the Nordic countries looked like when the crises set in.
In terms of data, the impact of the economic freeze is seen first on jobs; unemployment will
rise dramatically, with the peak expected in the second quarter numbers. GDP contraction will
follow – for example, the recent eurozone PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) was very weak
and appears consistent with a 10% contraction in eurozone growth.
The ultimate public health costs and economic impact of Covid-19
are at this time unknown. Public health responses have weighed the
human cost of intensive care units being overwhelmed and the
number of preventable deaths exploding against the jump higher in
unemployment...
As the coronavirus continues to impact the global economy, Charles Hepworth, Investment Director, GAM Investments, discusses the risks that a second wave of epidemics could pose in the future.