According to David Lafferty, Chief strategist, Natixis Global Asset Management, the French election represents a win for EU continuity and integration. As Le Pen risk passes, the next hurdle for the EU project is likely to be the Italian banks which remain mired in non-performing loans and poor capital positions with little political stability to address the problem...
The French election result confirms our view that markets until recently had
overstated European political risks. Italian political risk and the country's fragile
banking system could move back into focus soon, however, particularly if the
likelihood of early elections in late 2017 rises.
The centrist candidate's victory is seen as a positive for European stability, something which supports the global reflation trend that has been building up since last summer. Economic data in Europe, Asia and the US has been improving, underpinning traditional risk assets, such as stocks, and high yield and emerging market bonds.
According to Pascal Gilbert, Head of Fixed Income, La Française, Bond markets are facing historically low yields, and this ongoing situation leaves, in theory, little room for a further appreciation in bond prices.
All strategies were up last week. Hedge funds captured the upside which was a function of
the protections implemented ahead of the French vote. Special Situations outperformed, as
their cyclical and turnaround positions surged. CTAs' strong long equity exposure offset
losses in their short Euro and in their long Euro bonds.