Risks to EM equities and bonds have increased since the U.S. election, with the
incoming Trump administration's policies on trade uncertain. Yet a cyclical growth
pick-up benefitting EMs outweighs these risks for now, we believe, and supports
selectively investing in EM assets.
Institutional investors worldwide are expecting to make more asset allocation
changes in the next one to two years than in 2012 and 2014, according to the new Fidelity® Global Institutional Investor Survey.
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, the Italian referendum yesterday signified a worrying trend for the rest of Europe in confirming the rise of populist parties in the EU, and particularly important given that 70% of Europe have elections in 2017.
Based on factor investment, this innovative approach capitalises on the attractive performances thus far of smart beta strategies. It is based on the combination, within the same portfolio, of four complementary factors that are loosely correlated with one another: Quality, Valuation, Momentum and Low Volatility.
In our view, the recent sharp market rotation that we have seen – from “low volatility growth” to “high volatility value” – is a continuation and acceleration of the trend change that has been underway since the third quarter of this year. The turning point for “quality growth” and other hideouts was marked by the Brexit vote.